Black Swan

Dice Rolling Experiment A three‐dimensional shape with 12 sides is called a dodecahedron. I am going to be using a 12‐sided die to conduct a small experiment. This is an experiment to evaluate chance and percentage to see how random (or not) the results will be. I am going to roll the die 120 times Read more

Say some unpleasant event, such as a car accident which you feel indirectly responsible for leaves you feeling unwell. You are tortured by the thought that you caused injuries to your passengers. Your mind keeps playing alternative scenarios: if you did not wake up 3 minutes later than usual, you would have avoided the car Read more

Where is the Gray Swan? For most people that are intrigued by the idea of Black Swans it is not because they like them. Black Swans are unfair and cause a lot of damage. Some Black Swans arise when we ignore sources of randomness. A Gray swan concerns modelable extreme events, a Black Swan is Read more

“But in all my experience, I have never been in any accident… of any sort worth speaking about. I have seen but one vessel in distress in all my years at sea. I never saw a wreck and never have been wrecked nor was I ever in any predicament that threatened to end in disaster Read more

Imagine you own a large personal library (containing thirty thousand books). If you ever have any friends over, they might ask you: “how many books have you read?”. Some friends could view this as ego-boosting library. The real point of a library like that is to be used as a research tool. Books that are Read more